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Discuss the methods of making investment decisions under conditions of risk.

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An eight-step approach to making better decisions.

The following list is adapted from Smart Choices by Hammond, et al.:
  1. Work on the right decision problem. Be careful in stating the problem, and avoid unwarranted assumptions and option-limiting prejudices.
  2. Specify your objectives. Determine what you want to accomplish, and which of your interests, values, concerns, fears, and aspirations are the most relevant.
  3. Create imaginative alternatives. Alternatives represent different courses of action, and your decision can be no better than your best alternative.
  4. Understand the consequences. Determine how well different alternatives satisfy all of your objectives.
  5. Grapple with your tradeoffs. Since objectives frequently conflict with each other, it becomes necessary to choose among less-than-perfect possibilities.
  6. Clarify your uncertainties. Confront uncertainty by judging the likelihood of different outcomes and assessing their possible impacts.
  7. Think hard about your risk tolerance. In order to choose an alternative with an acceptable level of risk, become conscious of how much risk you can tolerate.
  8. Consider linked decisions. Many important decisions are linked over time. The key to making a series of decisions is to isolate and resolve near-term issues while gathering information relevant to issues that will arise later.
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